Currencies:
The dollar has been moving sideways this week, and today we started to see a push down. We are a little mixed on our bias right now – because some dollar pairs look nice for dollar downside despite the dollar being very bullish on the higher timeframe.
The way we are going to trade this is waiting for a breakout on the 4HR and Daily. Once we see confirmation either way then we can look to trade it. If we see a break above 12212 we will look for the long. If we see a break below 12155 we will look for the short.
The JPYBaskets bearish scenario played out in the end, and we saw a big push down over the last few days. We will be looking for pullbacks for shorts, but we do need to be careful of some higher-timeframe AOI’s where we could bounce from. We will continue to look for shorts on here, but if we do see a breakout to the upside and get above 9140 then we can look for the long.
We have got the US Inflation data out on Thursday, so we could see some interesting moves then off the back of it. The banks in Japan are closed for the bank holiday then as well, so when they open on Friday we could see some volatility off the back of the US inflation data the day before.
Upcoming fundamental releases we have are:
Wednesday, February 9th
- CAD, BoC’s Governor Macklem speech
Thursday, February 10th
- USD, Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Jan)
- USD, Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Jan)
- GBP, BoE’s Governor Bailey speech
- JPY, National Foundation Day
- GBP, BoE’s Governor Bailey speech
- AUD, RBA’s Governor Lowe speech
Friday, February 11th
- GBP, Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q4) PREL
- EUR, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Jan)
USDollar 4HR
JPYBasket 4HR
Cryptocurrencies:
BTC is at a make-or-break area right now. We have pushed into the AOI on the weekly and we could see a reaction from here. The way I am seeing this is one more leg down to the 29K region, and then start pushing back up. If we break above the AOI we have now, then we can look for longs.
BTC Weekly
Last week we put out a blog post with the a Traders Tips section called ‘Our Chaos is our Order’. If you missed it, you can find it here
Written by Aqil – Head Analyst