The bullish scenario shared in last week’s blog post seems to be playing out right now. We could still see a reaction at 12400 – where the daily could be forming a range. If this happens then the dollar could see a reversal over the next few days.
The overall bias is still bullish, and we will trade it as such until structure changes.
The JPYBasket has been pulling back further this week. Although we are still heavily bearish, we could potentially start to pullback on daily. We have pushed into the 61.8 bullish fib on the daily – and this could break us out on the daily and push us up. However, until we make a high above 8428 this bullish scenario won’t be confirmed. The USDollar is really struggling at 12390, and although we are bullish overall – we could see a deeper pullback from here. If we break 12300 then we will be looking for deeper pullbacks to 12238.
Upcoming fundamental releases we have are:
Friday, April 8th
- CAD, Net Change in Employment (Mar)
- CAD, Unemployment Rate (Mar)
Tuesday, April 12th
- Claimant Count Change(Mar)
- GBP, ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)(Feb)
- EUR, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Mar)
- EUR, ECB Bank Lending Survey
- USD, Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Mar)
- USD, Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Mar
JPYBasket – Weekly
Here are a few setups we will be keeping our eyes on.
Written by Aqil – Head Analyst