Q1_Week_7_2022: Market Outlook

Published ON 17 Feb, 2022


The dollars back and fourth has continued into this week. Currently there is a lot of uncertainty around the Ukraine conflict with Russia. Because of this uncertainty, the markets are undecided. We are trend traders, and when we are not trending we need to sit out and be patient. On the USDOLLAR, I will be waiting for the daily breakout scenario as mentioned in previous blog posts and the Instagram livestream (every Thursday!).

The JPYBasket looks nice for shorts on the Daily. However, when we zoom out onto the weekly, I am seeing this in a triangle formation which again is consolidation. I need to see a significant breakout to look for a position on the JPY pairs. There are some setups lining up though on pairs such as AUDJPY and EURJPY. 

Overall, there are not many setups we are watching right now, most has some more price action to go before the setup forms. When we look to take a trade, we need to way up the confidence and probability of this trade. If the market has been very choppy, for the best part of two weeks as well as fundamentally we have some very big unresolved issues – then it may be best to wait for the ideal conditions to begin trading. For me, ideal conditions will come in the form of correlations lining up and seeing clean swings on the daily and 4HR.

Below I have put some setups we are keeping our eyes on which still need some more price action before they are ready – but they could be nice soon. 

Upcoming fundamental releases we have are: 

Friday, February 18th 

  • CAD, Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 

Monday, February 21st 

  • EUR, Markit Manufacturing PMI(Feb) PREL   
  • EUR, Markit PMI Composite(Feb) PREL   
  • EUR, Markit PMI Composite(Feb) PREL   
  • GBP, Markit Services PMI(Feb) PREL   

Wednesday, February 23rd 

  • NZD, Monetary Policy Statement 
  • NZD, RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 
  • NZD, RBNZ Rate Statement 
  • NZD, RBNZ Press Conference 
  • GBP, BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings 

USDollar 4HR

JPYBasket Weekly





Written by Aqil – Head Analyst

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