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Q4_Week_44: Market Outlook

Published ON 3 Nov, 2021

Currencies:

Shortly after the previous blog post we saw the dollar reverse, breaking out to the upside with a huge 4HR candle. We saw a nice pullback at the beginning of the week but have since continued our push up. Because of this, dollar upside looks quite nice now. However, as mentioned last week the weekly is getting squeezed in a rising wedge formation – we need to be aware of this as we may test the top of the wedge and react from there.  

There are a lot of USD fundamentals out today such as FED’s interest rate decision. Because of this, the dollar could be volatile as the market digests whatever the FED has to say – so trade with caution and understand that we may see some volatility today.  

The main trend around these fundamentals is whether the federal reserve will begin to taper. If you would like to understand more of what this is, there’s a really good article which you can find here; https://www.reuters.com/business/federal-reserves-taper-how-does-it-work-2021-11-03/ 

On Thursday we have a lot of GBP fundamental releases which we need to be weary of – so trade with caution as we may see pound volatility then.

Upcoming fundamental releases we have are: 

Thursday, November 4th 

  • AUD, Trade Balance (MoM)(Sep) 
  • GBP, Bank of England Monetary Policy Report 
  • GBP, BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged 
  • GBP, BoE Asset Purchase Facility 
  • GBP, Monetary Policy Summary 
  • GBP, BoE MPC Vote Rate Cut 
  • GBP, Bank of England Minutes 
  • GBP, BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike 
  • GBP, BoE Interest Rate Decision 
  • GBP, BoE’s Governor Bailey speech 
  • EUR, ECB’s President Lagarde speech 

Friday, November 5th 

  • AUD, RBA Monetary Policy Statement 
  • EUR, Retail Sales (YoY)(Sep) 
  • CAD, Unemployment Rate(Oct)  
  • USD, Nonfarm Payrolls(Oct) 
  • CAD, Net Change in Employment(Oct) 

USDOLLAR – Weekly

 

UPDATE – POTENTIAL SETUP: SILVER

Silver – Daily

Silver – 4HR

As mentioned last week, we are watching SILVER for a long position. However, we needed to see the correct reversal candlesticks to get into this. Since posting, SILVER has dropped but we are still in the area of interest. In order for us to get involved in this now we will need to see the 4HR breakout now – as this would confirm the upside move and we can long it on the retest.  

Written by Aqil – Head Analyst

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